Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tapatio vs Irapuato

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Akron
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Gamboa J.
Assist: Hernandez H.
39'
Martinez G.
41'
Alvarado V.

AI Match Summary

Irapuato in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Irapuato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tapatio
44%
Draws
20%
Irapuato
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Irapuato have won more games recently than Tapatio.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Irapuato have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tapatio Irapuato
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 11
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.75 2.25
Goals Conceded 2 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Irapuato
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Tapatio
2:1
Nov 9, 2008 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Irapuato
1:3
Sep 7, 2008 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Tapatio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tapatio Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Gamboa J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rangel J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tapatio 34 / 100
Irapuato 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tapatio Irapuato

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapatio's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Irapuato's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Tapatio has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tapatio VS Irapuato
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tepatitlan de Morelos1475221:1026
2Cancun1474324:1725
3Club Atletico Morelia1472518:1223
4Atletico La Paz1457222:1222
5Jaiba Brava1463515:1521
6Zacatecas Mineros1463519:2021
7Tapatio1462628:2420
8Atlante1455421:1720
9Irapuato1462627:2420
10Tlaxcala1455416:1720
11Venados FC1444625:2516
12Alebrijes de Oaxaca1444620:2916
13Dorados de Sinaloa1434717:2813
14Correcaminos1433814:2712
15Leones Negros1425715:2511