Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tapatio vs Irapuato

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Gamboa J.
Assist: Hernandez H.
39'
Martinez G.
41'
Alvarado V.

AI Match Summary

Irapuato in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Irapuato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Tapatio
20%
Draws
52%
Irapuato
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Irapuato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Tapatio have won more games recently than Irapuato.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Irapuato have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 12%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tapatio Irapuato
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.87 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Irapuato
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Tapatio
2:1
Nov 9, 2008 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Irapuato
1:3
Sep 7, 2008 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Tapatio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tapatio Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Gamboa J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rangel J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tapatio 35 / 100
Irapuato 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tapatio Irapuato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Irapuato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapatio's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Irapuato's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Tapatio has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tapatio VS Irapuato
1 Goals Scored 1.71
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.71
63% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Tapatio

(Home)
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0
Tlaxcala
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1
Tapatio
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3
Leones Negros
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1
Tapatio
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2
Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 7

Irapuato

(Away)
22 Sept
Reboceros de La Piedad
2 : 3
Irapuato
13 Sept
Irapuato
2 : 1
Tigres de Alica
05 Sept
Cordobes FC
0 : 3
Irapuato
30 Aug
Irapuato
2 : 1
Los Cabos United
19 Apr
Irapuato
0 : 0
Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tepatitlan de Morelos 14 7 5 2 21:10 26
2 Cancun 14 7 4 3 24:17 25
3 Club Atletico Morelia 14 7 2 5 18:12 23
4 Atletico La Paz 14 5 7 2 22:12 22
5 Jaiba Brava 14 6 3 5 15:15 21
6 Zacatecas Mineros 14 6 3 5 19:20 21
7 Tapatio 14 6 2 6 28:24 20
8 Atlante 14 5 5 4 21:17 20
9 Irapuato 14 6 2 6 27:24 20
10 Tlaxcala 14 5 5 4 16:17 20
11 Venados FC 14 4 4 6 25:25 16
12 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14 4 4 6 20:29 16
13 Dorados de Sinaloa 14 3 4 7 17:28 13
14 Correcaminos 14 3 3 8 14:27 12
15 Leones Negros 14 2 5 7 15:25 11
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)