Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tarapoto vs Sport Boys

Peru Peru

Segunda Division 2016
Fri, Nov 11, 2016
0 - 3
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tarapoto play Sport Boys in the Segunda Division 2016. Sport Boys are favorites here. Recently, Tarapoto averaged 0.27 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. Sport Boys averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Tarapoto won 0, Sport Boys won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 11, 2016 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Tarapoto and 0.99 for Sport Boys. This points to a Sport Boys double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Tarapoto
15%
Draws
71%
Sport Boys
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sport Boys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tarapoto picked up more points recently compared to Sport Boys.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%
Tarapoto Clean Sheet 23%
Sport Boys Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tarapoto Sport Boys
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 3 11
Draws 2 7
Losses 25 11
Goals Scored 0.27 1.14
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 11, 2016 Liga 2
Tarapoto vs Sport Boys
0:3
Jul 23, 2016 Liga 2
Sport Boys vs Tarapoto
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tarapoto 17 / 100
Sport Boys 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tarapoto Sport Boys

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sport Boys Win (2)
Secondary Pick Sport Boys & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tarapoto attacking → ← attacking Sport Boys

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tarapoto scored in 20% of their last 30 games.

Sport Boys let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Tarapoto went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Sport Boys lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 40
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1AD Cantolao30158745:3153
2Sport Ancash30165953:4453
3Cienciano30157848:2652
4Carlos Mannucci301311647:3150
5Deportivo Coopsol30148839:2650
6Los Chankas301371042:4046
7Alianza Huanuco30129935:2445
8Alfredo Salinas301341357:3643
9Los Caimanes301261239:3742
10Sport Loreto30991239:4136
11Sport Victoria301061439:5336
12Union Huaral30891338:5033
13Willy Serrato30991236:5332
14Sport Boys301271141:3231
15Atletico Torino308101231:4128
16Tarapoto3031268:7210