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Taraz vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Mansurov B.
61' Event
Lesbek D.
Assist: Baytana B.
71' Event
Usipkhanov R.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Taraz and Arys finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Taraz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Taraz
35%
Draws
40%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Arys haven't matched Taraz's recent run of results.
  • Arys are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Taraz have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Taraz Clean Sheet 20%
Arys Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taraz Arys
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 5 4
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.34 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.41 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 First League
Arys vs Taraz
1:1
May 22, 2026 First League
Taraz vs Arys
2:1
Aug 8, 2024 First League
Taraz vs Arys
3:0
May 31, 2024 First League
Arys vs Taraz
1:2
Sep 22, 2023 First League
Taraz vs Arys
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Taraz Compare

Top Goalscorer Lesbek D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Toybekov E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Usipkhanov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taraz 16 / 100
Arys 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taraz Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arys Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arys's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Taraz found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Taraz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Taraz VS Arys
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Taraz

(Home)
03 Sept
FC Astana 2
4 : 0
Taraz
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
14 Aug
Taraz
0 : 0
Turan
07 Aug
Jaiyq
2 : 0
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
15 Aug
Khan Tengri
0 : 0
Arys
07 Aug
Arys
3 : 0
Tobol 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 21 19 1 1 62:7 58
2 Kairat Almaty 2 21 16 4 1 62:10 52
3 Turan 20 13 2 5 41:19 41
4 Akademiya Ontustik 21 12 3 6 35:27 39
5 FC Astana 2 21 9 2 10 33:40 29
6 Taraz 21 8 4 9 27:29 28
7 Jaiyq 20 8 3 9 18:24 27
8 FC Ekibastuz 21 7 5 9 29:41 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 20 7 4 9 28:33 25
10 Khan Tengri 21 7 3 11 26:39 24
11 Aktobe 2 21 6 5 10 36:62 23
12 Arys 21 5 3 13 23:41 18
13 Yelimay Semey 2 20 3 3 14 16:40 12
14 Tobol 2 21 2 4 15 32:56 10
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