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Taraz vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Migunov A.
Assist: Vasilchenko D.
49' Event
Litosh A.

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Taraz
35%
Draws
44%
Shakhter Karagandy
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy have won more games recently than Taraz.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on Shakhter Karagandy taking it.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Taraz Clean Sheet 10%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taraz Shakhter Karagandy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 24
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.4 2.7
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz
0:0
Jun 26, 2026 First League
Taraz vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:2
Oct 3, 2025 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz
2:0
Jul 4, 2025 First League
Taraz vs Shakhter Karagandy
4:0
Sep 4, 2022 Premier League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Taraz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Migunov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Litosh A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taraz 10 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taraz Shakhter Karagandy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Taraz scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Taraz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Shakhter Karagandy has conceded goals in 27% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Taraz VS Shakhter Karagandy
1 Goals Scored 2.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Taraz

(Home)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Taraz
3 : 3
Khan Tengri
03 Sept
FC Astana 2
4 : 0
Taraz
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
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Shakhter Karagandy

(Away)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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