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Tartu JK Welco vs Elva - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu
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Match Events

44' Event
Malki U.
Assist: Timothy L.
46' Event
Veensalu E.
66' Event
Kablik H.
Assist: Laasner K.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Tartu JK Welco and Elva finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tartu JK Welco
30%
Draws
27%
Elva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Elva haven't matched Tartu JK Welco's recent run of results.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Tartu JK Welco taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 20%
Elva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco Elva
Matches Played 32 36
Wins 20 18
Draws 5 5
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 3 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
4:0
Aug 8, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tartu JK Welco
2:1
Jun 1, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2
Apr 27, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
3:3
Oct 27, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Malki U.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Veensalu E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Elva Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 85 / 100
Elva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco Elva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu JK Welco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu JK Welco found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Tartu JK Welco remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Elva conceded in 77% of 35 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS Elva
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu JK Welco

(Home)
09 Oct
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 0
Elva
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 7

Elva

(Away)
09 Oct
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 0
Elva
24 Sept
Elva
3 : 2
Tallinna Kalev
19 Sept
Elva
1 : 1
FC Tallinn
13 Sept
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 2
Elva
10 Sept
Viimsi JK
5 : 0
Elva
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 32 21 5 6 85:39 68
2 Viimsi JK 31 16 5 10 56:31 53
3 Flora Tallinn U21 32 15 6 11 73:55 51
4 Elva 32 15 6 11 47:48 51
5 Levadia U21 31 15 2 14 61:55 47
6 Tallinna Kalev 30 11 7 12 52:55 40
7 Nomme Utd U21 32 11 6 15 50:63 39
8 FC Tallinn 31 9 8 14 41:64 35
9 Kalju U21 31 7 4 20 38:79 25
10 Maardu Linnameeskond 36 12 5 19 45:59 41
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)