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Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
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Match Events

33' Event
Geveller D.
54'
Kruusla G.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga B game between Tartu Kalev and Narva U21 finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Narva U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Tartu Kalev
15%
Draws
58%
Narva U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Narva U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Tartu Kalev haven't matched Narva U21's recent run of results.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Narva U21 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Narva U21 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%
Narva U21 Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu Kalev Narva U21
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 20
Draws 2 4
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 2.52 2.21
Goals Conceded 2.21 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2026 Esiliiga B
Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev
2:0
Sep 6, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21
0:1
Jun 18, 2026 Esiliiga B
Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev
3:2
Mar 14, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21
3:0
Nov 9, 2025 Esiliiga B
Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu Kalev Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Narva U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Geveller D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu Kalev 22 / 100
Narva U21 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu Kalev Narva U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Narva U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tartu Kalev scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Narva U21 let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Tartu Kalev has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tartu Kalev VS Narva U21
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu Kalev

(Home)
18 Oct
Tartu Kalev
4 : 0
Johvi Phoenix
15 Oct
Narva U21
2 : 0
Tartu Kalev
10 Oct
Tartu Kalev
0 : 2
Levadia U19
26 Sept
Tulevik
6 : 1
Tartu Kalev
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
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Narva U21

(Away)
19 Oct
Tabasalu
0 : 0
Narva U21
15 Oct
Narva U21
2 : 0
Tartu Kalev
11 Oct
Johvi Phoenix
0 : 1
Narva U21
26 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Narva U21
19 Sept
Tallinna Kalev U21
1 : 2
Narva U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 33 22 4 7 74:36 70
2 Levadia U19 33 21 2 10 83:53 65
3 Tammeka Tartu U21 33 18 4 11 90:62 58
4 Johvi Phoenix 33 17 3 13 72:76 54
5 Tulevik 33 16 5 12 86:67 53
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 33 15 5 13 100:67 50
7 Tartu Kalev 33 16 2 15 76:62 50
8 Tabasalu 33 10 4 19 46:85 34
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 33 8 6 19 65:82 30
10 Legion 33 3 3 27 27:129 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)