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Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Kruusla G.
48' Event
Villems M.
68' Event
Kohv K.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga B game between Tartu Kalev and Tabasalu finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tartu Kalev
20%
Draws
29%
Tabasalu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tartu Kalev

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tartu Kalev come out ahead of Tabasalu on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Tartu Kalev taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 15%
Tabasalu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu Kalev Tabasalu
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 2 3
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 2.55 1.67
Goals Conceded 2.03 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu
3:1
Jun 21, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tabasalu vs Tartu Kalev
3:1
Mar 21, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu
4:0
Oct 23, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tabasalu vs Tartu Kalev
3:9
Aug 9, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Kruusla G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Villems M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Tabasalu Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu Kalev 84 / 100
Tabasalu 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu Kalev Tabasalu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu Kalev Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu Kalev found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).

Tabasalu let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Tartu Kalev went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu Kalev VS Tabasalu
1.38 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu Kalev

(Home)
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
29 Aug
Tartu Kalev
0 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
25 Aug
Tartu Kalev
1 : 1
Tallinna Kalev U21
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Tabasalu

(Away)
19 Sept
Johvi Phoenix
3 : 2
Tabasalu
14 Sept
Tabasalu
1 : 1
Legion
11 Sept
Tallinna Kalev U21
4 : 1
Tabasalu
05 Sept
Tabasalu
3 : 2
Tammeka Tartu U21
29 Aug
Narva U21
4 : 0
Tabasalu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 69:35 60
2 Johvi Phoenix 30 17 3 10 71:68 54
3 Levadia U19 29 17 2 10 74:52 53
4 Tammeka Tartu U21 29 15 4 10 74:59 49
5 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 71:52 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 95:62 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 74:60 44
8 Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 44:81 33
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 30 7 5 18 60:77 26
10 Legion 29 3 3 23 25:111 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)