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Tarxien vs Msida

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Winchester R.
32' Event
Cloth J.
45' Event
Mbata V.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2023/2024 game between Tarxien and Msida finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tarxien.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Tarxien
20%
Draws
11%
Msida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tarxien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tarxien come out ahead of Msida on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Tarxien's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tarxien have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Tarxien Clean Sheet 16%
Msida Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tarxien Msida
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 13 3
Draws 10 2
Losses 18 25
Goals Scored 1.54 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.68 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Challenge League
Tarxien vs Msida
3:1
Dec 10, 2023 Challenge League
Msida vs Tarxien
0:2
Jan 17, 2010 Premier League
Tarxien vs Msida
3:1
Oct 17, 2009 Premier League
Msida vs Tarxien
1:1
May 8, 2009 Premier League
Msida vs Tarxien
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tarxien Compare

Top Goalscorer Winchester R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cloth J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Msida Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbata V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tarxien 84 / 100
Msida 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tarxien Msida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tarxien Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Msida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Tarxien scored in 73% of their last 41 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Tarxien has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tarxien VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tarxien

(Home)
20 Sept
Tarxien
3 : 1
Attard
13 Sept
Mgarr
1 : 3
Tarxien
10 May
Zabbar
2 : 0
Tarxien
05 May
Zabbar
2 : 3
Tarxien
30 Apr
Tarxien
2 : 1
Sliema
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Msida

(Away)
26 Apr
Msida
1 : 1
Attard
21 Apr
Msida
2 : 2
Fgura
14 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 1
Msida
07 Apr
Msida
1 : 3
St. Andrews
17 Mar
Zebbug
6 : 0
Msida
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