Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tau vs SCD Progresso

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Spatari A.
67' Event
Spatari A.
90' Event
Bortolotti G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Tau and SCD Progresso finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tau
15%
Draws
42%
SCD Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Tau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on SCD Progresso taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tau Clean Sheet 19%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tau SCD Progresso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.48 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs SCD Progresso
2:1
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Tau vs SCD Progresso
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Tau
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tau Compare

Top Goalscorer Spatari A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Bortolotti G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tau 28 / 100
SCD Progresso 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tau SCD Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Progresso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tau found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

SCD Progresso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

SCD Progresso's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tau VS SCD Progresso
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tau

(Home)
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Siena
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

SCD Progresso

(Away)
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 4 3 1 0 6:1 10
2 Prato 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Seravezza Pozzi 4 2 1 1 10:3 7
4 Terranuova Traiana 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
5 Siena 4 2 1 1 9:4 7
6 Scandicci 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
7 Lucchese 4 2 1 1 7:6 7
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
9 Flaminia 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
10 Tau 4 2 0 2 6:10 6
11 Mezzolara 4 1 2 1 3:5 5
12 Ternana 4 1 1 2 5:4 4
13 Montevarchi 4 1 1 2 6:7 4
14 Sasso Marconi 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
15 SCD Progresso 4 1 0 3 3:11 3
16 Rondinella 4 0 2 2 1:6 2
17 Grassina 4 0 1 3 3:7 1
18 Ghiviborgo 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)