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Tauras Taurage vs Garliava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tauras Taurage play Garliava in the I Lyga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tauras Taurage averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Garliava averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Tauras Taurage won 2, Garliava won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Tauras Taurage and 1.31 for Garliava. This points to a Tauras Taurage double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Tauras Taurage
23%
Draws
31%
Garliava
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Tauras Taurage

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Tauras Taurage picked up more points recently compared to Garliava.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Tauras Taurage Clean Sheet 18%
Garliava Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tauras Taurage Garliava
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.71 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 I Lyga
Tauras Taurage vs Garliava
2:0
Aug 24, 2024 I Lyga
Tauras Taurage vs Garliava
1:0
Mar 30, 2024 I Lyga
Garliava vs Tauras Taurage
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tauras Taurage Compare

Top Goalscorer Pikciunas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jorge Eduardo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Garliava Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tauras Taurage 45 / 100
Garliava 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tauras Taurage Garliava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tauras Taurage or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tauras Taurage attacking → ← attacking Garliava

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tauras Taurage scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Garliava let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Tauras Taurage went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Garliava lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 42
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FK Minija15131139:940
2FK Babrungas15123026:439
3BE1 NFA15102328:1532
4Neptunas1591520:1728
5Tauras Taurage1591527:1628
6Dainava Alytus1583426:1527
7Garliava1564522:1422
8BFA Vilnius1571718:2422
9FK Atmosfera1563623:1721
10Zalgiris 21553721:2518
11Jonava1545618:2017
12Transinvest 21542913:3614
13Hegelmann Litauen 215411016:3213
14Ekranas15211215:297
15FK Kauno Zalgiris 21521127:247
16Siauliai 215141013:357