Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Dorados de Sinaloa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
7'
7'
Sub
Garcia D. In: Osuna D.
Out: Garcia D.
9'
9'
Vargas L.
19'
19'
Castro J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Tepatitlan de Morelos and Dorados de Sinaloa finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dorados de Sinaloa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dorados de Sinaloa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tepatitlan de Morelos come out ahead of Dorados de Sinaloa on wins alone.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Dorados de Sinaloa Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Dorados de Sinaloa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.58 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 4, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Dorados de Sinaloa
1:4
Jan 31, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Dorados de Sinaloa vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Dorados de Sinaloa
3:0
Mar 16, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Dorados de Sinaloa vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:0
Sep 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Dorados de Sinaloa
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Sanguinetti F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Dorados de Sinaloa Compare
Top Goalscorer Vargas L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ordorica B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tepatitlan de Morelos 34 / 100
Dorados de Sinaloa 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tepatitlan de Morelos Dorados de Sinaloa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Dorados de Sinaloa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dorados de Sinaloa let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.
Attacking prowess: Tepatitlan de Morelos scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Tepatitlan de Morelos has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Dorados de Sinaloa
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 7
10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 4
Dorados de Sinaloa
(Away) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
16 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
1 : 1 Cancun
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
20 Aug
Venados FC
4 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
