Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala Prediction & H2H Stats
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
29'
29'
Olvera G.
46'
46'
Sub
Paez L. In: Gonzalez S.
Out: Paez L.
49'
49'
Sub
Sanguinetti F. In: Martinez E.
Out: Sanguinetti F.
AI Match Summary
Tepatitlan de Morelos in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tepatitlan de Morelos.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tlaxcala
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Tepatitlan de Morelos have won more games recently than Tlaxcala.
- Tlaxcala are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
3:2
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:2
Aug 11, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Olvera G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Moreno A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Tlaxcala Compare
Top Goalscorer Govea I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gonzalez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
Tlaxcala 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tepatitlan de Morelos Tlaxcala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tlaxcala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tepatitlan de Morelos scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Tlaxcala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Tepatitlan de Morelos stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Tlaxcala
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
3.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home) 19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
25 Jul
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 3
Tlaxcala
(Away) 26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
16 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
01 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:11 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Zacatecas Mineros | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21:15 | 17 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24:20 | 16 |
| 6 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 7 | Correcaminos | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 15 |
| 8 | Cancun | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 10 | Alacranes de Durango | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18:22 | 11 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8:18 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
