Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Venados FC
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez 
Match Events
AI Match Summary
Tepatitlan de Morelos play Venados FC in the Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tepatitlan de Morelos averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Venados FC averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Tepatitlan de Morelos won 1, Venados FC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Tepatitlan de Morelos and 1.31 for Venados FC. This points to a Tepatitlan de Morelos double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Tepatitlan de Morelos has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Venados FC.
- Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
- League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.33 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Venados FC Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tepatitlan de Morelos scored in 74% of their last 35 games.
Venados FC let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Tepatitlan de Morelos went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Venados FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |