Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Venados FC
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Tepatitlan de Morelos and Venados FC finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tepatitlan de Morelos.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Tepatitlan de Morelos carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Tepatitlan de Morelos a 42% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.17 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Venados FC Compare
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.
Attacking prowess: Tepatitlan de Morelos scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Tepatitlan de Morelos has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home)Venados FC
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |