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Terranuova Traiana vs Follonica Gavorrano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Innocenti L.

AI Match Summary

Terranuova Traiana in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Terranuova Traiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Terranuova Traiana
39%
Draws
30%
Follonica Gavorrano
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Follonica Gavorrano haven't matched Terranuova Traiana's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Terranuova Traiana Clean Sheet 26%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Terranuova Traiana Follonica Gavorrano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 0.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Terranuova Traiana
0:1
Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Terranuova Traiana
2:2
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Follonica Gavorrano
0:0
Mar 19, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Terranuova Traiana
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Terranuova Traiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Innocenti L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Terranuova Traiana 33 / 100
Follonica Gavorrano 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Terranuova Traiana Follonica Gavorrano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FLG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Follonica Gavorrano let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Terranuova Traiana found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Terranuova Traiana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Terranuova Traiana VS Follonica Gavorrano
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622