Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Teuta vs Pogradeci

Albania Albania

Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 Stadiumi Niko Dovana, Durrës
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Preknicaj K.
57'
Wotlai D.
63'
Sub
Lleshaj G. In: Kazeem S.
Out: Lleshaj G.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Teuta advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Teuta
20%
Draws
28%
Pogradeci
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Teuta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pogradeci come out ahead of Teuta on wins alone.
  • Teuta are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Pogradeci arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Teuta, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Teuta have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Teuta Clean Sheet 68%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Teuta Pogradeci
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 16
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Abissnet Superiore
Teuta vs Pogradeci
1:0
May 5, 2012 Abissnet Superiore
Teuta vs Pogradeci
5:3
Dec 17, 2011 Abissnet Superiore
Pogradeci vs Teuta
1:2
Dec 14, 2011 Albanian Cup
Pogradeci vs Teuta
0:2
Oct 19, 2011 Albanian Cup
Teuta vs Pogradeci
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Teuta Compare

Top Goalscorer Daci K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Pogradeci Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Teuta 77 / 100
Pogradeci 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Teuta Pogradeci

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Teuta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Teuta stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Teuta found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Pogradeci conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Teuta VS Pogradeci
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Teuta

(Home)
12 Sept
Teuta
2 : 0
Vora
05 Sept
Laci
1 : 3
Teuta
30 Aug
Teuta
3 : 1
KF Tirana
22 Aug
Partizani
0 : 0
Teuta
01 Aug
Teuta
1 : 0
Beselidhja Lezha
Page 1 of 6

Pogradeci

(Away)
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0
Pogradeci
12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1
Skenderbeu Korca
08 Aug
Pogradeci
4 : 2
Pelister
31 Jul
Pogradeci
0 : 2
Partizani
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pogradeci 3
Kastrioti 0
Iliria Kruja 0
Besa Kavaje 2
Semi-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
Pogradeci 1
Besa Kavaje 0
Final
Teuta 1
Pogradeci 0