Sport Picks

Mozambique

Mocambola 2025

Baia de Pemba

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Textafrica play Baia de Pemba in the Mocambola 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Textafrica averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Baia de Pemba averaged 0.92 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. In past meetings, Textafrica won 1, Baia de Pemba won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 21, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.66 for Textafrica and 0.90 for Baia de Pemba. This points to a Baia de Pemba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Textafrica

28%

Draws

42%

Baia de Pemba

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Baia de Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Textafrica picked up more points recently compared to Baia de Pemba.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.66 vs 0.90 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 53%

Over 2.5 Goals 31%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%

Textafrica Clean Sheet 25%

Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 48%

Second Half Goal 50%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Textafrica	Baia de Pemba
Matches Played	27	26
Wins	5	7
Draws	9	8
Losses	13	11
Goals Scored	0.67	0.92
Goals Conceded	1.37	0.96
Expected Goals (xG)	0.57	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.29	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 21, 2025 Mocambola

Textafrica vs Baia de Pemba

Possession: 47% - 58% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Aug 27, 2025 Mocambola

Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Sep 24, 2024 Mocambola

Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica

Possession: 53% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

May 26, 2024 Mocambola

Textafrica vs Baia de Pemba

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Sep 29, 2019 Mocambola

Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica

Possession: 53% - 53% Cards: 1 - 4

3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Textafrica 32 / 100

Baia de Pemba 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Textafrica Baia de Pemba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Baia de Pemba or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +24%

4.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Textafrica attacking → ← attacking Baia de Pemba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Textafrica scored in 44% of their last 27 games.

Baia de Pemba let in goals in 62% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Textafrica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Baia de Pemba lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 29

0.57 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.29 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Songo	22	18	3	1	50:13	57
2	Associacao Black Bulls	23	11	6	6	35:26	39
3	Ferroviario Beira	23	10	7	6	19:13	37
4	Ferroviario Lichinga	22	9	7	6	38:31	34
5	Ferroviario Maputo	23	7	12	4	25:18	33
6	Baia de Pemba	22	9	5	8	24:21	32
7	ENH Vilankulo	24	7	10	7	22:21	31
8	Costa do Sol	23	7	10	6	18:18	31
9	Ferroviario Nacala	23	8	7	8	16:17	31
10	Chingale de Tete	22	6	9	7	22:21	27
11	Ferroviario Nampula	22	6	8	8	21:29	26
12	Textafrica	23	4	8	11	15:30	20
13	Desportivo de Nacala	20	2	6	12	13:31	12
14	Desportivo Matola	22	2	4	16	11:40	10