Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Thailand U23 vs Mongolia U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 MFF Football Centre, Ulaanbaatar
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Palapon J.
76' Event
Batbold B.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Thailand U23
15%
Draws
0%
Mongolia U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thailand U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Thailand U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Thailand U23 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Thailand U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand U23, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Thailand U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Mongolia U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thailand U23 Mongolia U23
Matches Played 32 23
Wins 8 1
Draws 9 4
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.53 0.65
Goals Conceded 1.69 3
Expected Goals (xG) 3.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2025 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Mongolia U23
6:0
Oct 25, 2021 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Mongolia U23
1:1
Jul 19, 2017 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Mongolia U23
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thailand U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Palapon J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.59

Mongolia U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Batbold B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thailand U23 95 / 100
Mongolia U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thailand U23 Mongolia U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Thailand U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mongolia U23 conceded in 96% of 23 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Mongolia U23 registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Thailand U23 scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Thailand U23 VS Mongolia U23
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 5
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Thailand U23

(Home)
26 Sept
China U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Hong Kong U23
1 : 5
Thailand U23
16 Sept
Thailand U23
3 : 2
Kyrgyzstan U23
09 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 5
United Arab Emirates U23
Page 1 of 7

Mongolia U23

(Away)
09 Sept
Lebanon U23
3 : 0
Mongolia U23
06 Sept
Mongolia U23
0 : 7
Malaysia U23
03 Sept
Thailand U23
6 : 0
Mongolia U23
24 Sept
Iran U23
3 : 0
Mongolia U23
21 Sept
Mongolia U23
0 : 3
Saudi Arabia U23
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Qatar U23 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Syria U23 3 1 2 0 6:1 5
3 Yemen U23 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Sri Lanka U23 3 0 0 3 0:13 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran U23 3 3 0 0 9:2 9
2 Tajikistan U23 3 2 0 1 9:3 6
3 Lebanon U23 3 1 0 2 4:3 3
4 Nepal U23 3 0 0 3 0:14 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iraq U23 2 2 0 0 7:0 6
2 Bahrain U23 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Maldives U23 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
4 Afghanistan U23 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kuwait U23 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
2 Saudi Arabia U23 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
3 Bangladesh U23 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 United Arab Emirates U23 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
2 India U23 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
3 Kyrgyzstan U23 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
4 Oman U23 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jordan U23 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Turkmenistan U23 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
3 Palestine U23 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Australia U23 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
2 Indonesia U23 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
3 China U23 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Brunei U23 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Korea U23 3 3 0 0 14:1 9
2 Singapore U23 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
3 Timor-Leste U23 3 1 1 1 3:8 4
4 Philippines U23 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
2 Myanmar U23 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
3 Chinese Taipei U23 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malaysia U23 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
2 Thailand U23 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
3 Laos U23 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Mongolia U23 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan U23 2 2 0 0 8:0 6
2 Cambodia U23 2 1 0 1 4:6 3
3 Hong Kong U23 2 0 0 2 2:8 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 2022 (Main)