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Stadium Background

Thionville vs Rouen Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

Ligue 3 Stadium Plaine, Thionville
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Bouzar S.
26' Event
Tchokounte M.
Assist: Karamoko I.
29'
Gaspar J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Thionville and Rouen finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rouen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Thionville
35%
Draws
50%
Rouen
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Rouen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Thionville's 1.69 goals per match outpaces what Rouen have produced (1.28).
  • Model gives Rouen a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Thionville Clean Sheet 14%
Rouen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thionville Rouen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.69 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.62 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Ligue 3
Thionville vs Rouen
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thionville Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Rouen Compare

Top Goalscorer Tchokounte M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karamoko I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thionville 10 / 100
Rouen 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thionville Rouen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rouen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Thionville found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Rouen let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Thionville went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thionville VS Rouen
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Thionville

(Home)
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 1
Thionville
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
05 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 2
Thionville
29 Aug
Thionville
1 : 1
Paris 13 Atletico
Page 1 of 6

Rouen

(Away)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
03 Sept
Rouen
1 : 1
Valenciennes
29 Aug
Villefranche
0 : 2
Rouen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 8 5 3 0 12:7 18
2 Rouen 8 5 2 1 15:5 17
3 Caen 8 5 0 3 15:9 15
4 Concarneau 8 3 4 1 10:7 13
5 Versailles 8 4 1 3 12:12 13
6 Amiens SC 8 3 3 2 9:3 12
7 Cannes 8 2 6 0 8:3 12
8 Thionville 8 3 3 2 14:13 12
9 Paris 13 Atletico 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Le Puy-en-Velay 8 3 1 4 10:9 10
11 Quevilly 8 2 4 2 7:9 10
12 Bastia 8 3 1 4 6:10 10
13 Fleury 91 8 2 3 3 12:10 9
14 Valenciennes 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
15 Orleans 8 2 2 4 6:10 8
16 Aubagne FC 8 2 1 5 5:9 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 8 1 2 5 5:13 5
18 Villefranche 8 1 1 6 7:19 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)