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Thun vs Basel

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League 2025/2026 Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Montolio G.
27'
Salah I.
28' Event
Ibayi C.
Assist: Rastoder E.

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2025/2026 game between Thun and Basel finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thun.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Thun
28%
Draws
22%
Basel
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Thun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Thun carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Thun are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Thun Clean Sheet 16%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thun Basel
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 2 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Basel
3:1
Feb 1, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Basel
1:3
Jan 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Basel vs Thun
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thun Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibayi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Heule M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Duranville J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thun 48 / 100
Basel 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thun Basel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick THU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thun's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Basel has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Thun stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thun VS Basel
2 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Thun

(Home)
25 Jul
Luzern
1 : 3
Thun
21 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Din. Zagreb
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 2
Mannheim
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Elversberg
04 Jul
Thun
6 : 2
Xamax
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Basel

(Away)
25 Jul
Servette
0 : 1
Basel
18 Jul
Basel
0 : 0
Juventus
11 Jul
Basel
2 : 2
Winterthur
08 Jul
Basel
0 : 3
Yverdon
26 Jun
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 3
Basel
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thun33242775:3774
2St. Gallen33179764:4060
3Lugano33169850:3857
4Basel331581051:4553
5Sion331313751:3552
6Young Boys331391165:6048
7Luzern3310101364:6140
8Servette339131157:5740
9Lausanne331091447:5739
10Zurich331041945:6334
11Grasshoppers33691840:6527
12Winterthur33472235:8619
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)