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Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan FC

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Universitario
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AI Match Summary

Tigres UANL play Mazatlan FC in the Liga MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tigres UANL averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Mazatlan FC averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Tigres UANL won 3, Mazatlan FC won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Tigres UANL and 1.31 for Mazatlan FC. This points to a Tigres UANL double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Tigres UANL
24%
Draws
24%
Mazatlan FC
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Tigres UANL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Tigres UANL picked up more points recently compared to Mazatlan FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%
Tigres UANL Clean Sheet 18%
Mazatlan FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tigres UANL Mazatlan FC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.61 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan FC
5:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Tigres UANL
2:2
Jan 18, 2025 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan FC
2:1
Oct 23, 2024 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Tigres UANL
2:0
Mar 17, 2024 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan FC
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tigres UANL Compare

Top Goalscorer Brunetta J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Correa A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mazatlan FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tigres UANL 50 / 100
Mazatlan FC 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tigres UANL Mazatlan FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tigres UANL or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tigres UANL attacking → ← attacking Mazatlan FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tigres UANL scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Mazatlan FC let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Tigres UANL went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mazatlan FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 25
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812