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Timor-Leste vs Tajikistan

Asia Asia

Asian Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Timor-Leste play Tajikistan in the Asian Cup. Tajikistan are favorites here. Recently, Timor-Leste averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. Tajikistan averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Timor-Leste won 0, Tajikistan won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 18, 2025 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Timor-Leste and 1.00 for Tajikistan. This points to a Tajikistan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Timor-Leste
25%
Draws
60%
Tajikistan
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Timor-Leste picked up more points recently compared to Tajikistan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 23%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Timor-Leste Tajikistan
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 7 13
Draws 2 6
Losses 21 9
Goals Scored 0.83 1.46
Goals Conceded 2.6 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Asian Cup
Timor-Leste vs Tajikistan
0:5
Mar 25, 2025 Asian Cup
Tajikistan vs Timor-Leste
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Timor-Leste Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mabatshoev S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pandzhshanbe E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Timor-Leste 18 / 100
Tajikistan 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Timor-Leste Tajikistan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tajikistan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Tajikistan & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Timor-Leste attacking → ← attacking Tajikistan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Timor-Leste scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Tajikistan let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Timor-Leste went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Tajikistan lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 45
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tajikistan642014:314
2Philippines642016:614
3Maldives61053:133
4Timor-Leste61054:153
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Yemen642020:114
2Lebanon641114:213
3Bhutan61144:164
4Brunei61053:223
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Singapore64208:414
2Hong Kong62228:88
3Bangladesh61236:85
4India61234:65
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Thailand650116:515
2Turkmenistan640211:712
3Sri Lanka63038:99
4Chinese Taipei60065:190
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Syria660021:218
2Myanmar64028:1112
3Afghanistan60244:112
4Pakistan60242:112
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vietnam660017:218
2Malaysia630310:109
3Laos62044:166
4Nepal61055:83