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Tirol vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Estadio Presidente Vargas, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Vina
Assist: Pedro Henrique
25'
Richardson
45'
Roni Lobo

AI Match Summary

Ceara in this Cearense matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Tirol
35%
Draws
32%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ceara average 1.34 goals a game right now, well clear of Tirol's 1.03.
  • Model gives Tirol a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cearense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Tirol Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirol Ceara
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2026 Cearense
Tirol vs Ceara
1:4
Jan 18, 2025 Cearense
Ceara vs Tirol
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirol Compare

Top Goalscorer Yuri
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Vina
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirol 51 / 100
Ceara 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirol Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Tirol found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Ceara has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Tirol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tirol VS Ceara
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirol

(Home)
13 Jun
Piaui
2 : 1
Tirol
01 Jun
Tirol
0 : 0
Ferroviario
26 May
Atletico Cearense
0 : 3
Tirol
16 May
Tirol
1 : 1
Fluminense-PI
09 May
Tirol
1 : 0
AE Altos
Page 1 of 6

Ceara

(Away)
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fortaleza 4 3 1 0 6:0 10
2 Ferroviario 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Horizonte 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
4 Quixada 4 1 1 2 2:6 4
5 Maracana 4 0 0 4 1:5 0
Promotion - Cearense (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cearense (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ceara 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Floresta EC 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
3 Iguatu 4 1 3 0 4:2 6
4 Maranguape 4 1 0 3 1:6 3
5 Tirol 4 0 1 3 1:7 1
Promotion - Cearense (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cearense (Relegation Group)