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Tivoli vs Chapelton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Williams L.
40' Event
Brown B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Tivoli
35%
Draws
39%
Chapelton
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chapelton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Chapelton have won more games recently than Tivoli.
  • 26% — that's where the model lands on Tivoli taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Tivoli Clean Sheet 68%
Chapelton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tivoli Chapelton
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.16 1
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
1:1
Mar 25, 2026 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
0:1
Dec 29, 2025 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
2:0
Aug 24, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Tivoli
2:1
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Tivoli
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tivoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Chapelton Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tivoli 95 / 100
Chapelton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tivoli Chapelton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tivoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tivoli found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Chapelton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Tivoli went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tivoli VS Chapelton
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tivoli

(Home)
08 Nov
Mount Pleasant
2 : 1
Tivoli
01 Nov
Tivoli
1 : 1
Arnett Gardens
25 Oct
Cavalier
2 : 1
Tivoli
18 Oct
Tivoli
3 : 0
FC Dunbeholden
12 Oct
Tivoli
3 : 4
Racing United
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Chapelton

(Away)
09 Nov
Chapelton
0 : 0
Racing United
01 Nov
Tru-Juice FC
1 : 0
Chapelton
25 Oct
Portmore
0 : 0
Chapelton
18 Oct
Chapelton
1 : 0
Treasure Beach
11 Oct
Humble Lions
0 : 0
Chapelton
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tru-Juice FC 9 6 2 1 18:4 20
2 Waterhouse 9 5 3 1 19:4 18
3 Racing United 9 5 2 2 19:11 17
4 Montego Bay 9 4 4 1 14:9 16
5 Mount Pleasant 8 4 2 2 10:10 14
6 Arnett Gardens 9 3 4 2 17:12 13
7 Cavalier 8 4 1 3 13:11 13
8 Tivoli 9 3 3 3 16:11 12
9 Portmore 7 2 4 1 11:7 10
10 Chapelton 9 2 4 3 4:11 10
11 FC Dunbeholden 9 2 1 6 6:14 7
12 Molynes United 9 2 1 6 9:20 7
13 Treasure Beach 9 1 3 5 9:19 6
14 Humble Lions 9 0 2 7 3:25 2
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)