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Tivoli vs Chapelton

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League 2025/2026 Edward Seaga Sports Complex, Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Williams L.

AI Match Summary

Chapelton in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chapelton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Tivoli
15%
Draws
51%
Chapelton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chapelton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Chapelton have won more games recently than Tivoli.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Tivoli Clean Sheet 68%
Chapelton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tivoli Chapelton
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.19 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
0:1
Dec 29, 2025 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
2:0
Aug 24, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Tivoli
2:1
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Tivoli
2:2
Feb 12, 2025 Premier League
Tivoli vs Chapelton
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tivoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Chapelton Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tivoli 41 / 100
Chapelton 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tivoli Chapelton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tivoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tivoli's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Chapelton let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Chapelton lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tivoli VS Chapelton
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tivoli

(Home)
20 Sept
Treasure Beach
1 : 1
Tivoli
13 Sept
Tivoli
3 : 0
Humble Lions
06 May
Portmore
3 : 0
Tivoli
03 May
Tivoli
0 : 2
Cavalier
30 Apr
Treasure Beach
4 : 2
Tivoli
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Chapelton

(Away)
20 Sept
Chapelton
2 : 1
Molynes United
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
06 May
Chapelton
2 : 7
Arnett Gardens
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
26 Apr
Chapelton
6 : 2
Spanish Town Police
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mount Pleasant 39 20 14 5 69:25 74
2 Montego Bay 39 21 8 10 79:45 71
3 Portmore 39 17 15 7 54:35 66
4 Waterhouse 39 19 8 12 51:32 65
5 Cavalier 39 19 4 16 57:41 61
6 Racing United 39 14 18 7 53:34 60
7 Arnett Gardens 39 17 7 15 68:46 58
8 Chapelton 39 14 7 18 42:57 49
9 FC Dunbeholden 39 13 9 17 40:53 48
10 Tivoli 39 11 11 17 37:58 44
11 Treasure Beach 39 10 13 16 43:59 43
12 Molynes United 39 9 15 15 45:47 42
13 Harbour View 39 9 12 18 53:73 39
14 Spanish Town Police 39 7 5 27 25:111 26
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)