Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tlaxcala vs Club Atletico Morelia

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Castaneda S.
32'
Martinez J.
43'
Sub
Silva J. In: Fabio Erins
Out: Silva J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Tlaxcala and Club Atletico Morelia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Atletico Morelia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Tlaxcala
20%
Draws
38%
Club Atletico Morelia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tlaxcala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Club Atletico Morelia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tlaxcala a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 20%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tlaxcala Club Atletico Morelia
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala
0:0
Nov 2, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:1
Apr 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Nov 1, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala
2:1
Feb 9, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tlaxcala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Club Atletico Morelia Compare

Top Goalscorer Nambo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tlaxcala 42 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tlaxcala Club Atletico Morelia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tlaxcala scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Club Atletico Morelia conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Tlaxcala stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tlaxcala VS Club Atletico Morelia
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tlaxcala

(Home)
01 Jul
Puebla
3 : 1
Tlaxcala
18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2
Venados FC
12 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
0 : 0
Tlaxcala
07 Apr
Tapatio
3 : 0
Tlaxcala
03 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 0
Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 6

Club Atletico Morelia

(Away)
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3
Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atlante1493235:1030
2Cancun1493225:730
3Jaiba Brava1486024:1530
4Irapuato1465323:1923
5Zacatecas Mineros1456326:2421
6Leones Negros1463519:1721
7Club Atletico Morelia1454519:2119
8Tepatitlan de Morelos1446421:1618
9Venados FC1453629:3018
10Atletico La Paz1445525:3017
11Tapatio1443720:1815
12Tlaxcala1435614:2714
13Alebrijes de Oaxaca1434716:2513
14Correcaminos1424816:3510
15Dorados de Sinaloa1412118:265
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Apertura - Play Offs)