Sport Picks
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala 
Match Events
14'
14'
Loera K.
Assist: De Jesus Bravo Santiago A.
20'
20'
Gonzalez O.
32'
32'
Gil O.
Assist: Hernandez S. A.
AI Match Summary
Leones Negros in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Leones Negros have won more games recently than Tlaxcala.
- Tlaxcala are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 68%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tlaxcala | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
2:4
Feb 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
5:2
Aug 31, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tlaxcala
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tlaxcala
5:1
Aug 18, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tlaxcala Compare
Top Goalscorer Alvarez D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Flores B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Loera K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gil O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tlaxcala 50 / 100
Leones Negros 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tlaxcala Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tlaxcala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.
Tlaxcala scored in 75% of their last 28 games.
Leones Negros has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Tlaxcala stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tlaxcala VS Leones Negros
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tlaxcala
(Home) 12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
16 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
06 Aug
Tlaxcala
0 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2 Venados FC
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 17 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19:12 | 17 |
| 4 | Piratas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cancun | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:11 | 14 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22:19 | 13 |
| 10 | Correcaminos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18:18 | 12 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | 11 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
