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TNS vs Colwyn Bay Prediction & H2H Stats

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Park Hall, Oswestry
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Lock J.
38' Event
Lock J.
42' Event
Hughes R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between TNS and Colwyn Bay finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TNS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
TNS
15%
Draws
38%
Colwyn Bay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: TNS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • TNS carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives TNS a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
TNS Clean Sheet 68%
Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric TNS Colwyn Bay
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 21 14
Draws 3 4
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.97 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Colwyn Bay
5:1
Mar 20, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Colwyn Bay
0:2
Feb 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs TNS
0:2
Jan 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Colwyn Bay
1:0
Aug 25, 2025 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs TNS
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TNS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lock J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Williams J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Colwyn Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Peate N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TNS 50 / 100
Colwyn Bay 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
TNS Colwyn Bay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TNS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

TNS scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: TNS stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Colwyn Bay conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

TNS VS Colwyn Bay
3 Goals Scored 2
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

TNS

(Home)
26 Sept
Trefelin
1 : 3
TNS
19 Sept
TNS
2 : 1
Llandudno FC
15 Sept
TNS
5 : 0
Flint Town
11 Sept
Airbus UK Broughton FC
0 : 2
TNS
05 Sept
TNS
1 : 0
Barry Town
Page 1 of 6

Colwyn Bay

(Away)
26 Sept
Colwyn Bay
1 : 0
Haverfordwest
18 Sept
Colwyn Bay
5 : 2
Barry Town
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5
Colwyn Bay
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1
Connahs Q.
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0
Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 11 10 1 0 29:5 31
2 Penybont 11 8 3 0 22:9 27
3 Connahs Q. 11 8 1 2 27:8 25
4 Caernarfon 11 7 2 2 35:13 23
5 Colwyn Bay 11 7 1 3 21:14 22
6 Barry Town 11 7 1 3 26:20 22
7 Cardiff Metropolitan University 11 5 3 3 22:13 18
8 Cambrian United 11 5 3 3 21:23 18
9 Llandudno FC 11 5 1 5 21:18 16
10 Airbus UK Broughton FC 11 5 0 6 18:17 15
11 Haverfordwest 11 3 1 7 7:16 10
12 Briton Ferry 11 2 3 6 10:20 9
13 Flint Town 11 1 2 8 11:24 5
14 Trefelin 11 0 3 8 5:27 3
15 Ammanford Town 11 0 3 8 7:31 3
16 Holywell Town FC 11 0 2 9 12:36 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)