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Tobol 2 vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Tobol 2 Logo

Tobol 2

4 - 3
FT
Arys Logo

Arys

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Amanzhanov A.
Assist: Bakhytkiriev S.
45' Event
Zhumadelov N.
65' Event
Kabylzagin B.
Assist: Musaev E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tobol 2 in this First League matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tobol 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Tobol 2
15%
Draws
53%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Tobol 2 haven't matched Arys's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tobol 2's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 14%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol 2 Arys
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 7 4
Losses 18 19
Goals Scored 1.63 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.37 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 First League
Arys vs Tobol 2
3:0
May 7, 2026 First League
Tobol 2 vs Arys
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Amanzhanov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zhumadelov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Zanbyrbaj A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bakirov S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 2 39 / 100
Arys 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol 2 Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arys has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Tobol 2 found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Tobol 2 stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tobol 2 VS Arys
1.38 Goals Scored 1
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol 2

(Home)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Tobol 2
3 : 4
Khan Tengri
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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