Sport Picks
Tobol vs Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay 
Match Events
43'
43'
Sub
Poe J. In: Baybosynov N.
Out: Poe J.
45'
45'
Asrankulov R.
46'
46'
Sub
Zhumat D. In: Zuev A.
Out: Zhumat D.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Tobol and Ertis Pavlodar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tobol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tobol come out ahead of Ertis Pavlodar on wins alone.
- 34% — that's where the model lands on Tobol taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Tobol Clean Sheet 20%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tobol | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Tobol
0:2
May 9, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:0
Aug 15, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Tobol
0:0
Jul 18, 2020 Premier League
Tobol vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
May 5, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Tobol
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tobol Compare
Top Goalscorer Milovanovic U.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tobol 40 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tobol Ertis Pavlodar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tobol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
Tobol scored in 73% of their last 30 games.
Historical meetings average 0.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Tobol remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tobol VS Ertis Pavlodar
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Tobol
(Home) 30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2 Partizan
06 Aug
Partizan
3 : 0 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2 Partizan
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1 FK Panevezys
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0 Atyrau
12 Jul
Tobol
3 : 1 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 3
Ertis Pavlodar
(Away) 30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
09 Aug
Yelimay Semey
3 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
25 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Yelimay Semey
3 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar
25 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 46:16 | 55 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 44:15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 37:24 | 42 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 33:28 | 35 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 31:28 | 32 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21:24 | 31 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 22:24 | 29 |
| 9 | Tobol | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26:31 | 28 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25:31 | 26 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 24:35 | 23 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 17:24 | 20 |
| 13 | Ertis Pavlodar | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 22:31 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 23 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20:30 | 20 |
| 15 | Altai | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 20:34 | 19 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24:41 | 19 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
