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Tobol vs FC Astana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Talal A.
Assist: Guerra L.
45'
Marat D.
52' Event
Bartolec K.
Assist: Marat D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Tobol and FC Astana finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tobol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tobol
15%
Draws
45%
FC Astana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Astana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Tobol haven't matched FC Astana's recent run of results.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Tobol Clean Sheet 15%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol FC Astana
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.26 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs FC Astana
2:1
Apr 29, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
FC Astana vs Tobol
1:2
Mar 20, 2026 Premier League
FC Astana vs Tobol
2:0
Sep 19, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs FC Astana
2:3
May 10, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Tobol
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Talal A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lisakovich V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FC Astana Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartolec K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 35 / 100
FC Astana 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol FC Astana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Astana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Tobol's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

FC Astana has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Tobol remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tobol VS FC Astana
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol

(Home)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
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FC Astana

(Away)
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
FC Astana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Kyzylzhar 27 7 6 14 28:40 27
12 Ertis Pavlodar 26 6 8 12 26:36 26
13 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
14 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)