Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tobol vs Kyzylzhar

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Valgushev G.
41'
Piscevic N.
45'
Makarenko E.

AI Match Summary

Tobol in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tobol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Tobol
20%
Draws
15%
Kyzylzhar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tobol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tobol lately — more wins on the board than Kyzylzhar.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Tobol taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tobol Clean Sheet 68%
Kyzylzhar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol Kyzylzhar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.45 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Tobol
1:1
Jun 13, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Kyzylzhar
2:0
Aug 2, 2025 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Tobol
0:2
May 4, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Kyzylzhar
2:1
Aug 11, 2024 Premier League
Tobol vs Kyzylzhar
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Milovanovic U.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zuev A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Kyzylzhar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 95 / 100
Kyzylzhar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol Kyzylzhar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kyzylzhar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Tobol's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Tobol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tobol VS Kyzylzhar
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol

(Home)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 7

Kyzylzhar

(Away)
18 Sept
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
Kaisar Kyzylorda
12 Sept
Zhenis
3 : 1
Kyzylzhar
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0
Kyzylzhar
16 Aug
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)