Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tobol vs Ordabasy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Glushchenkov K.
32'
Kilama G.
33'
Sub
Talal A. In: Cavnic N.
Out: Talal A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Tobol and Ordabasy finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ordabasy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Tobol
15%
Draws
57%
Ordabasy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ordabasy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ordabasy come out ahead of Tobol on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ordabasy a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Tobol Clean Sheet 11%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol Ordabasy
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 21
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 1.39 2
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Tobol
2:0
May 23, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Ordabasy
0:3
Oct 4, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Ordabasy vs Tobol
0:2
Sep 24, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Ordabasy
1:0
Aug 17, 2025 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Tobol
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ordabasy Compare

Top Goalscorer Amir Z.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Capatina M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 10 / 100
Ordabasy 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol Ordabasy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ordabasy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Ordabasy has conceded goals in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Tobol went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tobol VS Ordabasy
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol

(Home)
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2
Partizan
06 Aug
Partizan
3 : 0
Tobol
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0
Tobol
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1
FK Panevezys
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0
Atyrau
Page 1 of 6

Ordabasy

(Away)
15 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 1
Altai
08 Aug
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 4
Ordabasy
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0
Tobol
26 Jul
Kairat Almaty
2 : 1
Ordabasy
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1
Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 22 16 4 2 43:16 52
2 Kairat Almaty 21 14 6 1 42:15 48
3 FC Astana 20 11 5 4 33:21 38
4 Aktobe 22 10 5 7 32:26 35
5 Okzhetpes 21 9 6 6 30:29 33
6 Yelimay Semey 20 8 7 5 29:24 31
7 Ulytau 22 7 7 8 18:24 28
8 Zhenis 21 6 8 7 21:24 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 21 6 4 11 22:29 22
10 Tobol 20 6 4 10 21:28 22
11 Kyzylzhar 21 6 4 11 23:31 22
12 Atyrau 20 3 11 6 15:19 20
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 21 3 11 7 16:24 20
14 Altai 22 4 7 11 20:33 19
15 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 22 4 7 11 24:38 19
16 Ertis Pavlodar 20 3 8 9 20:28 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)