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Tobol vs Yelimay Semey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Placca F.
(Penalty)
23'
Tanasijevic S.
30'
Mittendorfer M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Tobol and Yelimay Semey finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Yelimay Semey.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Tobol
15%
Draws
37%
Yelimay Semey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tobol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Tobol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Tobol's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Tobol Clean Sheet 17%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol Yelimay Semey
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Yelimay Semey
0:2
Apr 4, 2026 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Tobol
1:0
Jul 5, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Tobol
2:3
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Yelimay Semey
1:1
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Tobol
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Yelimay Semey Compare

Top Goalscorer Zhaksylykov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 75 / 100
Yelimay Semey 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol Yelimay Semey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Yelimay Semey let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Tobol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tobol VS Yelimay Semey
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol

(Home)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
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Yelimay Semey

(Away)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2
Yelimay Semey
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)