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Tobol W vs Shakhter Karagandy W

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

League Women Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Mon, Jul 27, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tobol W host Shakhter Karagandy W in the League Women. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Tobol W at 1.38 goals for, 3.38 against; Shakhter Karagandy W at 0.63 for, 5.63 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 3.50 vs 2.00, favoring Tobol W. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tobol W
6%
Draws
4%
Shakhter Karagandy W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tobol W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tobol W come out ahead of Shakhter Karagandy W on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tobol W taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.6%
Tobol W Clean Sheet 10%
Shakhter Karagandy W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol W Shakhter Karagandy W
Matches Played 30 11
Wins 10 3
Draws 3 1
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 3.38 5.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.38 5.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol W 83 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol W Shakhter Karagandy W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy W let in goals in 82% of their last 11 matches.

Shakhter Karagandy W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Tobol W found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (30 games).

Tobol W has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tobol W VS Shakhter Karagandy W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
3.38 Goals Conceded 5.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol W

(Home)
20 Jul
Tobol W
0 : 12
Aktobe W
14 Jul
Okzhetpes W
0 : 2
Tobol W
06 Jul
Tobol W
0 : 4
Zhenis Astana W
23 Jun
Zhenis Astana W
3 : 0
Tobol W
15 Jun
Tobol W
4 : 2
Okzhetpes W
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Shakhter Karagandy W

(Away)
21 Jul
Shakhter Karagandy W
2 : 0
FC Astana W
13 Jul
Zhenis Astana W
9 : 0
Shakhter Karagandy W
07 Jul
Shakhter Karagandy W
0 : 7
Kyzylzhar W
23 Jun
Kyzylzhar W
11 : 0
Shakhter Karagandy W
15 Jun
Shakhter Karagandy W
1 : 10
Zhenis Astana W
Page 1 of 3

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1BIIK Shymkent W10100088:130
2Tomiris-Turan W1080225:924
3Kaisar Kyzylorda W1061316:1619
4Atyrau W1052318:2017
5Kairat W941421:1713
6Ordabasy W1033410:2212
7Zhetysu W1022611:248
8Kaspij Aktau W90270:422
9Ulytau W100192:401
Promotion - Champions League Women 2027/2028 (Qualification - First stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Aktobe W121200120:236
2Zhenis Astana W1191157:1828
3Kyzylzhar W1162334:1420
4Yelimay Semey W1261528:2419
5FC Astana W1151519:2616
6Ertis Pavlodar W1143416:1515
7Tobol W1150613:3915
8Shakhter Karagandy W113177:6110
9Okzhetpes W1110108:553
10Altai W1101105:531
Promotion - Champions League Women 2027/2028 (Qualification - First stage)