Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tocantins vs Gurupi

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Laerth
24' Event
Hebert Felype

AI Match Summary

The Tocantinense 2025 game between Tocantins and Gurupi finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Tocantins
6%
Draws
90%
Gurupi
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gurupi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Gurupi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Gurupi are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tocantinense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Tocantins Clean Sheet 11%
Gurupi Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tocantins Gurupi
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 7 11
Draws 2 13
Losses 22 9
Goals Scored 0.29 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.86 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.29 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.86 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2025 Tocantinense
Tocantins vs Gurupi
1:1
Jan 31, 2024 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Tocantins
0:0
Mar 12, 2023 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Tocantins
0:2
Mar 5, 2022 Tocantinense
Tocantins vs Gurupi
1:3
Dec 18, 2021 Tocantinense
Tocantins vs Gurupi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tocantins Compare

Top Goalscorer Laerth
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.22
Avg xA / game 0.14

Gurupi Compare

Top Goalscorer Hebert Felype
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tocantins 10 / 100
Gurupi 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tocantins Gurupi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gurupi has conceded goals in 64% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Tocantins scored in 39% of their last 31 outings.

Tocantins has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tocantins VS Gurupi
0.29 Goals Scored 0.75
2.86 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
86% Over 2.5 25%
14% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tocantins

(Home)
01 Nov
Guarai SC
3 : 0
Tocantins
25 Oct
Tocantins
0 : 3
Araguaia (TO)
11 Oct
Central Tocantinense
3 : 0
Tocantins
04 Oct
Tocantins
0 : 3
Paraiso EC
15 Mar
Tocantins
1 : 1
Gurupi
Page 1 of 7

Gurupi

(Away)
21 Mar
Uniao Carmolandense
1 : 1
Gurupi
14 Mar
Gurupi
1 : 2
Uniao Carmolandense
07 Mar
Guarai SC
0 : 1
Gurupi
21 Feb
Gurupi
0 : 2
Tocantinopolis
14 Feb
Gurupi
5 : 0
Bela Vista-TO
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 7 5 1 1 15:6 16
2 Capital FC 7 5 0 2 8:4 15
3 Araguaina 7 3 1 3 9:7 10
4 Gurupi 7 2 4 1 9:5 10
5 Uniao Carmolandense 7 3 1 3 7:12 7
6 Bela Vista-TO 7 2 1 4 7:11 7
7 Batalhao 7 1 3 3 12:11 6
8 Tocantins 7 1 1 5 4:15 4
Promotion - Tocantinense 2025 (Play Offs)