Sport Picks
Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction & H2H Stats
Japan
J3 League Kanseki Stadium Tochigi, Utsunomiya 
Match Events
36'
36'
Suzuki S.
Own Goal
58'
58'
Sub
Kondo Y. In: Igarashi T.
Out: Kondo Y.
58'
58'
Sub
Abe K. In: Suzuki W. I.
Out: Abe K.
AI Match Summary
The J3 League game between Tochigi SC and Matsumoto Yamaga finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matsumoto Yamaga.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Matsumoto Yamaga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Matsumoto Yamaga come out ahead of Tochigi SC on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 16%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tochigi SC | Matsumoto Yamaga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 16 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 J3 League
Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC
1:1
Jun 28, 2025 J3 League
Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga
3:1
Oct 10, 2021 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC
0:1
May 23, 2021 J2 League
Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tochigi SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Igarashi T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Higuchi D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tochigi SC 36 / 100
Matsumoto Yamaga 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tochigi SC Matsumoto Yamaga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matsumoto Yamaga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tochigi SC found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Matsumoto Yamaga has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Tochigi SC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tochigi SC VS Matsumoto Yamaga
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tochigi SC
(Home) 26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
19 Sept
Kagoshima United
3 : 1 Tochigi SC
13 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 1 Tochigi SC
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
05 Sept
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Kochi United
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
05 Sept
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Kochi United
22 Aug
Tochigi SC
2 : 2 Giravanz Kitakyushu
19 Aug
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Urayasu SC
Page 1 of 3
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Away) 29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
30 Aug
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 1 Matsumoto Yamaga
08 Aug
Kochi United
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16:8 | 20 |
| 2 | Ehime | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19:9 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Osaka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 5 | Nara Club | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18:16 | 14 |
| 6 | Gifu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19:8 | 13 |
| 7 | Kumamoto | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7:4 | 13 |
| 8 | SC Sagamihara | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14:10 | 12 |
| 9 | Reilac Shiga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 12 |
| 10 | Ryukyu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:10 | 11 |
| 11 | Nagano Parceiro | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Kanazawa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:13 | 10 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:18 | 10 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 16 | Fukushima United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16:20 | 7 |
| 17 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:16 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:15 | 6 |
| 19 | Kochi United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3:18 | 5 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:17 | 4 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
