Sport Picks
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata
Japan
J.League Cup Kanseki Stadium Tochigi, Utsunomiya 
Match Events
17'
17'
Mori K.
Assist: Thalisson
58'
58'
Sub
Myogan T. In: Yamaguchi T.
Out: Myogan T.
61'
61'
Sub
Kokubu S. In: Terayama T.
Out: Kokubu S.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montedio Yamagata
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Montedio Yamagata carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Montedio Yamagata a 51% chance of winning this.
- Montedio Yamagata arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Montedio Yamagata, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Montedio Yamagata have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 16%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tochigi SC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 16 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 J.League Cup
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata
0:1
May 3, 2026 J2/J3 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC
3:2
Feb 15, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata
1:2
Jul 6, 2024 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC
1:0
Mar 3, 2024 J2 League
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tochigi SC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Montedio Yamagata Compare
Top Goalscorer Mori K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tochigi SC 28 / 100
Montedio Yamagata 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tochigi SC Montedio Yamagata
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Montedio Yamagata Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tochigi SC scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Montedio Yamagata's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Difficult form: Montedio Yamagata registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tochigi SC VS Montedio Yamagata
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Tochigi SC
(Home) 26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
19 Sept
Kagoshima United
3 : 1 Tochigi SC
13 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 1 Tochigi SC
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
05 Sept
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Kochi United
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
05 Sept
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Kochi United
22 Aug
Tochigi SC
2 : 2 Giravanz Kitakyushu
19 Aug
Tochigi SC
2 : 0 Urayasu SC
Page 1 of 3
Montedio Yamagata
(Away) 29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
29 Aug
Imabari
0 : 3 Montedio Yamagata
15 Aug
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
25 Jul
Albirex Niigata
3 : 4 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
Gamba Osaka -
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
