Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toledo vs Patriotas

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro, Toledo
Toledo Logo

Toledo

1 - 1
FT
Patriotas Logo

Patriotas

Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Emanuel Baitler
67' Event
Caique
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Toledo
20%
Draws
51%
Patriotas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Patriotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Toledo haven't matched Patriotas's recent run of results.
  • Patriotas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Patriotas have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Toledo Clean Sheet 16%
Patriotas Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Patriotas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Patriotas
1:1
Apr 18, 2025 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Toledo
2:1
May 7, 2023 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Toledo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Emanuel Baitler
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Patriotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Caique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 10 / 100
Patriotas 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Patriotas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Patriotas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toledo scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Patriotas conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Toledo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Patriotas
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
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Patriotas

(Away)
24 May
Patriotas
0 : 2
Paranavai-PR
16 May
Paranavai-PR
1 : 2
Patriotas
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Parana
2 : 1
Patriotas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)