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Tolmin vs Ljubljana Svoboda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Lazar N.
51' Event
Kurincic J.

AI Match Summary

The 3. SNL - West game between Tolmin and Ljubljana Svoboda finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Tolmin
15%
Draws
21%
Ljubljana Svoboda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tolmin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Tolmin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tolmin a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 3. SNL - West form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tolmin here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 20%
Ljubljana Svoboda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolmin Ljubljana Svoboda
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.93 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Ljubljana Svoboda
2:0
Mar 7, 2026 3. SNL - West
Ljubljana Svoboda vs Tolmin
1:2
Aug 23, 2025 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Ljubljana Svoboda
3:0
Apr 8, 2023 3. SNL - West
Ljubljana Svoboda vs Tolmin
1:2
Sep 17, 2022 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Ljubljana Svoboda
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tolmin Compare

Top Goalscorer Lazar N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kurincic J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Ljubljana Svoboda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolmin 85 / 100
Ljubljana Svoboda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolmin Ljubljana Svoboda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tolmin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ljubljana Svoboda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Ljubljana Svoboda's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Tolmin found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Tolmin VS Ljubljana Svoboda
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolmin

(Home)
10 Oct
Zidgrad Idrija
2 : 0
Tolmin
03 Oct
Tolmin
2 : 0
Ljubljana Svoboda
27 Sept
Tolmin
5 : 1
Rudar Trbovlje
19 Sept
Tolmin
0 : 1
Izola
13 Sept
Ziri
2 : 4
Tolmin
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Ljubljana Svoboda

(Away)
10 Oct
Ljubljana Svoboda
1 : 0
Skofja Loka
03 Oct
Tolmin
2 : 0
Ljubljana Svoboda
26 Sept
Ljubljana Svoboda
0 : 1
Sencur
19 Sept
Dob
4 : 0
Ljubljana Svoboda
12 Sept
Ljubljana Svoboda
3 : 5
Fama Vipava
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Izola 9 9 0 0 40:6 27
2 Dob 9 6 2 1 22:7 20
3 Zidgrad Idrija 9 6 1 2 15:11 19
4 Sencur 9 4 4 1 17:11 16
5 Litija 9 4 3 2 16:8 15
6 Tolmin 9 4 3 2 18:12 15
7 Rudar Trbovlje 9 4 1 4 13:19 13
8 Skofja Loka 9 3 3 3 15:18 12
9 Adria Miren 9 3 1 5 19:17 10
10 IB 1975 Ljubljana 9 2 1 6 9:18 7
11 Ziri 9 1 4 4 9:14 7
12 Fama Vipava 9 2 0 7 14:41 6
13 Ljubljana Svoboda 9 1 1 7 6:21 4
14 Sobec Lesce 9 0 4 5 6:16 4
Promotion - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)