Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tolmin vs Sobec Lesce

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tolmin in this 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Tolmin
35%
Draws
16%
Sobec Lesce
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tolmin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tolmin lately — more wins on the board than Sobec Lesce.
  • Tolmin are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 20%
Sobec Lesce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolmin Sobec Lesce
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.79 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Sobec Lesce
1:0
Aug 30, 2025 3. SNL - West
Sobec Lesce vs Tolmin
3:0
Apr 15, 2023 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Sobec Lesce
1:0
Sep 24, 2022 3. SNL - West
Sobec Lesce vs Tolmin
0:1
Nov 13, 2021 3. SNL - West
Sobec Lesce vs Tolmin
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolmin 85 / 100
Sobec Lesce 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolmin Sobec Lesce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tolmin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Tolmin stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Tolmin's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Sobec Lesce let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Tolmin VS Sobec Lesce
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolmin

(Home)
13 Sept
Ziri
2 : 4
Tolmin
05 Sept
Tolmin
2 : 2
Skofja Loka
29 Aug
Tolmin
1 : 0
IB 1975 Ljubljana
22 Aug
Sencur
3 : 3
Tolmin
15 Aug
Tolmin
1 : 1
Dob
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Sobec Lesce

(Away)
12 Sept
Sobec Lesce
1 : 1
Litija
05 Sept
IB 1975 Ljubljana
4 : 1
Sobec Lesce
29 Aug
Sobec Lesce
1 : 2
Zidgrad Idrija
23 Aug
Sobec Lesce
1 : 1
Ljubljana Svoboda
15 Aug
Rudar Trbovlje
0 : 0
Sobec Lesce
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vrhnika 26 17 5 4 63:21 56
2 Sencur 26 16 6 4 46:27 54
3 Dob 26 15 5 6 54:29 50
4 Tolmin 26 14 3 9 47:33 45
5 Izola 26 12 6 8 53:39 42
6 Rudar Trbovlje 26 11 8 7 56:39 41
7 IB 1975 Ljubljana 26 11 3 12 35:44 36
8 Sobec Lesce 26 10 6 10 31:32 36
9 Skofja Loka 26 7 9 10 37:42 30
10 Ziri 26 7 6 13 30:52 27
11 Fama Vipava 26 6 8 12 28:42 26
12 Ljubljana Svoboda 26 6 5 15 30:51 23
13 Zidgrad Idrija 26 6 4 16 34:57 22
14 Bistrc 26 5 4 17 35:71 19
Promotion - 2. SNL (Main)