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Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Estrada J.
71' Event
Navarrete L.

AI Match Summary

Toluca U21 in this Liga MX U21 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Toluca U21
15%
Draws
14%
Atlas U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Atlas U21 haven't matched Toluca U21's recent run of results.
  • 71% — that's where the model lands on Toluca U21 taking it.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Toluca U21 have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Atlas U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Atlas U21
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 22 10
Draws 0 1
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 2.23 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21
2:0
Mar 14, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21
5:1
Nov 1, 2025 Liga MX U21
Atlas U21 vs Toluca U21
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Estrada J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Navarrete L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Atlas U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 85 / 100
Atlas U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Atlas U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U21's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Atlas U21 conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Toluca U21 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Atlas U21
2.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
24 Oct
Club Leon U21
1 : 4
Toluca U21
21 Oct
Toluca U21
5 : 0
Club Tijuana U21
17 Oct
Toluca U21
4 : 1
Atletico San Luis U21
09 Oct
Tigres UANL U21
1 : 2
Toluca U21
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
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Atlas U21

(Away)
25 Oct
Atlas U21
1 : 2
Puebla U21
21 Oct
Atlas U21
1 : 2
Club America U21
16 Oct
Necaxa U21
1 : 2
Atlas U21
10 Oct
Atlas U21
0 : 2
Guadalajara Chivas U21
25 Sept
Club Tijuana U21
3 : 2
Atlas U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca U21 14 14 0 0 35:10 39
2 Club Leon U21 14 11 0 3 25:18 29
3 Club America U21 14 8 0 6 22:18 24
4 Club Tijuana U21 13 8 0 5 20:18 24
5 Puebla U21 13 7 0 6 17:14 22
6 UNAM Pumas U21 14 6 0 8 16:17 22
7 Guadalajara Chivas U21 14 7 0 7 21:24 22
8 Santos Laguna U21 14 7 0 7 17:19 21
9 Atlante U21 14 7 0 7 22:26 21
10 Monterrey U21 13 7 0 6 28:22 20
11 Atletico San Luis U21 14 7 0 7 26:30 19
12 Necaxa U21 14 7 0 7 16:20 19
13 Juarez U21 14 6 0 8 14:18 18
14 Pachuca U21 14 4 0 10 16:22 17
15 Atlas U21 14 4 0 10 17:20 16
16 Tigres UANL U21 14 5 0 9 19:25 16
17 Cruz Azul U21 14 6 0 8 22:27 14
18 Queretaro U21 13 3 0 10 20:25 9
Promotion - Liga MX U21 (Apertura - Play Offs)