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Toluca U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Cervantes A.
60' Event
Segura E.
64' Event
Rangel B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX U21 2025/2026 game between Toluca U21 and Club Leon U21 finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Toluca U21
15%
Draws
42%
Club Leon U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Toluca U21's 1.93 goals per match outpaces what Club Leon U21 have produced (1.38).
  • Win probability leans Toluca U21's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 19%
Club Leon U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Club Leon U21
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 19
Draws 1 0
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.93 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Club Leon U21
4:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga MX U21
Club Leon U21 vs Toluca U21
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Barboza W.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cervantes A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Club Leon U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Rangel B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 36 / 100
Club Leon U21 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Club Leon U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U21 scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Toluca U21 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Club Leon U21 has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Club Leon U21
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
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Club Leon U21

(Away)
27 Sept
Club Leon U21
1 : 0
Juarez U21
20 Sept
Queretaro U21
0 : 2
Club Leon U21
12 Sept
Club Leon U21
3 : 2
Atletico San Luis U21
06 Sept
UNAM Pumas U21
1 : 2
Club Leon U21
28 Aug
Atlante U21
0 : 2
Club Leon U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 17 12 0 5 32:20 32
2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 17 10 0 7 26:19 32
3 Juarez U21 17 11 0 6 23:18 32
4 Monterrey U21 17 11 0 6 27:25 30
5 Pachuca U21 17 9 0 8 30:18 29
6 Toluca U21 17 9 0 8 32:22 29
7 Atlas U21 17 10 0 7 21:23 29
8 UNAM Pumas U21 17 11 0 6 23:26 28
9 Club Leon U21 17 9 0 8 18:16 27
10 Necaxa U21 17 10 0 7 23:25 26
11 Tigres UANL U21 17 8 0 9 20:18 24
12 Atletico San Luis U21 17 8 0 9 25:24 24
13 Club Tijuana U21 17 6 0 11 28:23 22
14 Cruz Azul U21 17 7 0 10 17:21 22
15 Puebla U21 17 5 0 12 17:22 20
16 Queretaro U21 17 8 0 9 20:27 20
17 Santos Laguna U21 17 5 0 12 16:25 20
18 Mazatlan FC U21 17 4 0 13 5:31 13
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)