Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca U21 vs Cruz Azul U21

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Sat, Feb 7, 2026
3 - 2
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Espinosa S.
24' Event
Segura E.
40' Event
Virgen O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX U21 2025/2026 game between Toluca U21 and Cruz Azul U21 finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Toluca U21
20%
Draws
35%
Cruz Azul U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toluca U21 come out ahead of Cruz Azul U21 on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Toluca U21's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 16%
Cruz Azul U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Cruz Azul U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 13
Draws 2 4
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.87 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Cruz Azul U21
3:2
Nov 22, 2025 Liga MX U21
Cruz Azul U21 vs Toluca U21
0:0
Nov 19, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Cruz Azul U21
1:4
Aug 23, 2025 Liga MX U21
Cruz Azul U21 vs Toluca U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Segura E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Virgen O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Cruz Azul U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Espinosa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pineda Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 57 / 100
Cruz Azul U21 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Cruz Azul U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U21's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Toluca U21 has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Cruz Azul U21 conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Cruz Azul U21
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
21 Aug
Queretaro U21
0 : 2
Toluca U21
15 Aug
Atlante U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas U21
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Cruz Azul U21

(Away)
28 Aug
Necaxa U21
2 : 1
Cruz Azul U21
22 Aug
Cruz Azul U21
3 : 2
Atlas U21
16 Aug
Club Tijuana U21
0 : 0
Cruz Azul U21
01 Aug
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 1
Atlante U21
21 Jul
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 1
Puebla U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 17 12 0 5 32:20 32
2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 17 10 0 7 26:19 32
3 Juarez U21 17 11 0 6 23:18 32
4 Monterrey U21 17 11 0 6 27:25 30
5 Pachuca U21 17 9 0 8 30:18 29
6 Toluca U21 17 9 0 8 32:22 29
7 Atlas U21 17 10 0 7 21:23 29
8 UNAM Pumas U21 17 11 0 6 23:26 28
9 Club Leon U21 17 9 0 8 18:16 27
10 Necaxa U21 17 10 0 7 23:25 26
11 Tigres UANL U21 17 8 0 9 20:18 24
12 Atletico San Luis U21 17 8 0 9 25:24 24
13 Club Tijuana U21 17 6 0 11 28:23 22
14 Cruz Azul U21 17 7 0 10 17:21 22
15 Puebla U21 17 5 0 12 17:22 20
16 Queretaro U21 17 8 0 9 20:27 20
17 Santos Laguna U21 17 5 0 12 16:25 20
18 Mazatlan FC U21 17 4 0 13 5:31 13
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)