Sport Picks
Toluca U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction & H2H Stats
Mexico
Liga MX U21 2025/2026 
Match Events
55'
55'
Gonzalez D.
70'
70'
Zamarripa D.
90'
90'
Barboza W.
AI Match Summary
Guadalajara Chivas U21 in this Liga MX U21 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guadalajara Chivas U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
15%
38%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Toluca U21 lately — more wins on the board than Guadalajara Chivas U21.
- Model gives Toluca U21 a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga MX U21 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Guadalajara Chivas U21 have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalajara Chivas U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toluca U21 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 16 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 1.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Liga MX U21
Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Toluca U21
2:3
Feb 28, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Liga MX U21
Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Toluca U21
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toluca U21 Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Guadalajara Chivas U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Zamarripa D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toluca U21 59 / 100
Guadalajara Chivas U21 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toluca U21 Guadalajara Chivas U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toluca U21 scored in 90% of their last 29 games.
Toluca U21 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.33 goals.
Scoring Trends
Toluca U21 VS Guadalajara Chivas U21
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Toluca U21
(Home) 26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3 Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1 Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1 Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0 Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1 Juarez U21
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20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1 Santos Laguna U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0 Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1 Juarez U21
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0 Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1 UNAM Pumas U21
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Guadalajara Chivas U21
(Away) 02 Oct
Guadalajara Chivas U21
1 : 0 Juarez U21
26 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 4 Queretaro U21
19 Sept
Club America U21
1 : 2 Guadalajara Chivas U21
13 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas U21
1 : 0 UNAM Pumas U21
05 Sept
Atletico San Luis U21
1 : 3 Guadalajara Chivas U21
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19 Sept
Club America U21
1 : 2 Guadalajara Chivas U21
05 Sept
Atletico San Luis U21
1 : 3 Guadalajara Chivas U21
29 Aug
Pachuca U21
2 : 3 Guadalajara Chivas U21
16 Aug
Santos Laguna U21
0 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
31 Jul
Puebla U21
1 : 0 Guadalajara Chivas U21
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America U21 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 32:20 | 32 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 26:19 | 32 |
| 3 | Juarez U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23:18 | 32 |
| 4 | Monterrey U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 27:25 | 30 |
| 5 | Pachuca U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30:18 | 29 |
| 6 | Toluca U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 32:22 | 29 |
| 7 | Atlas U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 21:23 | 29 |
| 8 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Club Leon U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 18:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Necaxa U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23:25 | 26 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20:18 | 24 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 25:24 | 24 |
| 13 | Club Tijuana U21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 28:23 | 22 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul U21 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17:21 | 22 |
| 15 | Puebla U21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 17:22 | 20 |
| 16 | Queretaro U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20:27 | 20 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna U21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 16:25 | 20 |
| 18 | Mazatlan FC U21 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 5:31 | 13 |
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
