Sport Picks
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga MX Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga MX matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico San Luis
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Atletico San Luis.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Toluca have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Toluca Clean Sheet 19%
Atletico San Luis Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 1.64 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 1.64 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 Liga MX
Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
1:3
Apr 17, 2025 Liga MX
Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
0:1
Aug 25, 2024 Liga MX
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
2:1
Apr 20, 2024 Liga MX
Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
1:5
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toluca 32 / 100
Atletico San Luis 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toluca Atletico San Luis
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico San Luis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toluca's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 34 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Atletico San Luis conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Difficult form: Atletico San Luis registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Toluca VS Atletico San Luis
2.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Toluca
(Home) 10 Oct
Tigres UANL
3 : 2 Toluca
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1 Toluca
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3 Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3 Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1 Toluca
Page 1 of 7
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3 Santos Laguna
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2 Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0 Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0 Club Leon
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0 Juarez
Page 1 of 4
Atletico San Luis
(Away) 11 Oct
Atletico San Luis
1 : 2 Santos Laguna
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3 Atletico San Luis
19 Sept
Atletico San Luis
3 : 1 Necaxa
15 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 0 Atletico San Luis
05 Sept
Atletico San Luis
0 : 3 Guadalajara Chivas
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3 Atletico San Luis
15 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 0 Atletico San Luis
31 Aug
Monterrey
1 : 3 Atletico San Luis
16 Aug
Club America
3 : 0 Atletico San Luis
12 Aug
Orlando City
3 : 2 Atletico San Luis
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 21 |
| 3 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25:15 | 20 |
| 4 | Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18:11 | 19 |
| 6 | Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22:21 | 17 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:16 | 16 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15:14 | 16 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19:20 | 16 |
| 11 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12:13 | 16 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | 13 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13:19 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15:25 | 9 |
| 18 | Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8:26 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
