Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca vs Austin FC

North & Central America North & Central America

Leagues Cup Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Sabovic B.
40'
Rosales J.
46'
Sub
Ramirez C. In: Desler M.
Out: Ramirez C.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Toluca
35%
Draws
32%
Austin FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Austin FC haven't matched Toluca's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Toluca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Toluca, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Toluca Clean Sheet 68%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Austin FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 2 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 Leagues Cup
Toluca vs Austin FC
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz Price J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Austin FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 41 / 100
Austin FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Austin FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 7:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Austin FC conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Toluca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Austin FC
2.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Toluca
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3
Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
Page 1 of 6

Austin FC

(Away)
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
FC Dallas
0 : 0
Austin FC
13 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 2
Austin FC
10 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
Colorado Rapids
06 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Toluca 2
Austin FC 0
Club Leon 3
Real Salt Lake 0
Club America 2
Columbus Crew 0
Monterrey 2
Chicago Fire 1
Semi-finals
Toluca 2
Club Leon 0
Club America 2
Monterrey 3
Final
Toluca 2
Monterrey 0
Club Leon 1
Club America 0