Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca vs Juarez

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Helinho
Assist: del Villar E.
17'
Virgen O.
34' Event
Murillo J.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX game between Toluca and Juarez finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Toluca
15%
Draws
0%
Juarez
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Toluca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Toluca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Toluca here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Toluca Clean Sheet 68%
Juarez Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Juarez
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 9
Draws 3 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Juarez
4:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Juarez
3:1
Nov 30, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Juarez
0:0
Nov 27, 2025 Liga MX
Juarez vs Toluca
1:2
Aug 12, 2025 Liga MX
Juarez vs Toluca
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Helinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Virgen O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Juarez Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 95 / 100
Juarez 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Juarez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 10:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Juarez has conceded goals in 97% of their last 29 outings.

Toluca has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Juarez lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Juarez
2 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Club Leon
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0
Juarez
Page 1 of 6

Juarez

(Away)
14 Sept
Santos Laguna
2 : 1
Juarez
05 Sept
Juarez
0 : 2
Pachuca
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0
Juarez
22 Aug
Juarez
1 : 2
Club America
16 Aug
Monterrey
6 : 1
Juarez
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 8 6 1 1 18:6 19
2 Guadalajara Chivas 8 5 2 1 15:6 17
3 Club America 7 5 1 1 15:6 16
4 Cruz Azul 8 5 0 3 16:14 15
5 Queretaro 7 4 1 2 10:7 13
6 Club Leon 8 4 1 3 11:9 13
7 Club Tijuana 7 4 1 2 10:8 13
8 Puebla 8 4 1 3 10:10 13
9 Atlas 8 4 1 3 12:14 13
10 Pachuca 8 3 2 3 13:8 11
11 UNAM Pumas 8 3 2 3 11:12 11
12 Monterrey 7 3 1 3 13:10 10
13 Necaxa 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
14 Tigres UANL 8 1 4 3 9:11 7
15 Atlante 8 1 4 3 7:12 7
16 Atletico San Luis 8 1 3 4 8:15 6
17 Santos Laguna 8 1 1 6 6:13 4
18 Juarez 8 0 0 8 4:23 0
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)