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Toluca vs Juarez

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Monchu
49'
Mosquera M.
54' Event
Helinho
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Toluca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Toluca
15%
Draws
32%
Juarez
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Juarez.
  • Model gives Toluca a 53% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Toluca have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%
Juarez Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Juarez
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 18 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.88 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.06 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Juarez
3:1
Nov 30, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Juarez
0:0
Nov 27, 2025 Liga MX
Juarez vs Toluca
1:2
Aug 12, 2025 Liga MX
Juarez vs Toluca
0:2
Feb 22, 2025 Liga MX
Juarez vs Toluca
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Briseno A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Juarez Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Castilho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 85 / 100
Juarez 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Juarez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juarez let in goals in 96% of their last 28 matches.

Toluca's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Toluca has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Juarez
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
27 Aug
Toluca
2 : 0
Austin FC
22 Aug
Queretaro
1 : 2
Toluca
15 Aug
Atlante
0 : 0
Toluca
13 Aug
Toluca
3 : 1
FC Dallas
09 Aug
Toluca
0 : 1
Los Angeles FC
Page 1 of 7

Juarez

(Away)
22 Aug
Juarez
1 : 2
Club America
16 Aug
Monterrey
6 : 1
Juarez
12 Aug
Real Salt Lake
3 : 0
Juarez
08 Aug
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 3
Juarez
05 Aug
Minnesota United
1 : 2
Juarez
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UNAM Pumas 17 10 6 1 34:17 36
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 33:17 36
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 31:18 33
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 25:19 31
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 28:16 30
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 16:18 26
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 28:18 25
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 20:17 25
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 19:17 23
10 Club Leon 17 7 1 9 22:32 22
11 Queretaro 17 4 8 5 17:21 20
12 Juarez 17 5 4 8 26:32 19
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 22:24 18
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 24:27 18
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 19:25 18
16 Mazatlan FC 17 4 3 10 22:37 15
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 13:26 13
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 20:38 12
Promotion - Liga MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)