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Toluca W vs Juarez W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Fernandez L.
29'
Mercado L.
31'
Murillo A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX Women game between Toluca W and Juarez W finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Toluca W
15%
Draws
46%
Juarez W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Juarez W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Juarez W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Toluca W a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 12%
Juarez W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca W Juarez W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 2.14 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.83 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Juarez W
2:0
Jan 31, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Juarez W
3:2
Aug 18, 2025 Liga MX Women
Juarez W vs Toluca W
0:0
Mar 4, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Juarez W
3:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga MX Women
Juarez W vs Toluca W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Juarez W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca W 40 / 100
Juarez W 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca W Juarez W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca W's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Juarez W let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Toluca W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca W VS Juarez W
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca W

(Home)
31 Oct
Toluca W
2 : 3
Guadalajara Chivas W
25 Oct
Cruz Azul W
1 : 2
Toluca W
20 Oct
Toluca W
0 : 0
Santos Laguna W
05 Oct
Pachuca W
1 : 2
Toluca W
29 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 4
Toluca W
Page 1 of 6

Juarez W

(Away)
25 Oct
Juarez W
2 : 1
Queretaro W
18 Oct
Atletico San Luis W
1 : 2
Juarez W
04 Oct
Guadalajara Chivas W
1 : 0
Juarez W
27 Sept
Juarez W
5 : 1
Club Tijuana W
21 Sept
Club Leon W
0 : 2
Juarez W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monterrey W 13 11 1 1 48:15 34
2 Tigres UANL W 13 10 2 1 43:12 32
3 Juarez W 12 9 0 3 18:9 27
4 Toluca W 13 8 2 3 29:20 26
5 Club Leon W 12 6 1 5 20:19 19
6 Santos Laguna W 13 6 1 6 17:23 19
7 Cruz Azul W 13 6 0 7 17:25 18
8 Atlante W 12 2 1 9 6:16 7
9 Queretaro W 13 2 0 11 11:31 6
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America W 12 10 1 1 54:12 31
2 Guadalajara Chivas W 13 10 0 3 32:13 30
3 Atletico San Luis W 12 6 1 5 24:25 19
4 UNAM Pumas W 13 5 2 6 20:24 17
5 Pachuca W 13 5 1 7 25:17 16
6 Atlas W 13 4 4 5 13:27 16
7 Club Tijuana W 13 3 2 8 16:29 11
8 Puebla W 12 1 1 10 15:42 4
9 Necaxa W 13 0 0 13 4:53 0
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)