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Tomares UD vs Portuense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Tamayo J.
(Penalty)
85' Event
Sastre H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 10 game between Tomares UD and Portuense finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tomares UD
30%
Draws
39%
Portuense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portuense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tomares UD come out ahead of Portuense on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 10 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Tomares UD Clean Sheet 16%
Portuense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tomares UD Portuense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.28 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Tomares UD vs Portuense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomares UD Compare

Top Goalscorer Sastre H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Portuense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomares UD 36 / 100
Portuense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tomares UD Portuense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tomares UD scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Portuense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Tomares UD went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tomares UD VS Portuense
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tomares UD

(Home)
04 Oct
Tomares UD
1 : 1
Portuense
26 Sept
AD Ceuta B
0 : 1
Tomares UD
20 Sept
Tomares UD
2 : 0
Cordoba B
13 Sept
Linense
2 : 0
Tomares UD
06 Sept
Tomares UD
2 : 2
Cadiz B
Page 1 of 6

Portuense

(Away)
04 Oct
Tomares UD
1 : 1
Portuense
27 Sept
Portuense
2 : 3
Chiclana
20 Sept
Egabrense
1 : 3
Portuense
13 Sept
Portuense
2 : 0
San Roque de Lepe
06 Sept
Xerez Deportivo FC
0 : 1
Portuense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dos Hermanas 5 4 1 0 13:2 13
2 CD Utrera 5 4 0 1 7:5 12
3 Betis C 5 3 1 1 11:6 10
4 Portuense 5 3 1 1 9:5 10
5 Pozoblanco 5 3 0 2 8:4 9
6 Egabrense 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
7 Chiclana 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
8 Tomares UD 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
9 San Roque de Lepe 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
10 Xerez Deportivo FC 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
11 Linense 5 2 0 3 8:9 6
12 Conil 5 2 0 3 4:7 6
13 Cadiz B 5 1 2 2 4:4 5
14 Sevilla C 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
15 Atl. Onubense (Huelva B) 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
16 AD Ceuta B 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
17 Bollullos 5 0 2 3 6:10 2
18 Cordoba B 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 (Play Offs)